Overcoming Ambiguity & Uncertainty

by Life Outside The Maze

“After the surgery you should be back on your feet in 6-8 weeks but I wouldn’t recommend running on it.”  “For how long” I asked?  “Ever,” he said.

Growing up, soccer was a big part of my life. I topped out playing division one soccer in an amateur FIFA affiliated men’s league right around age 20. I was not one of the best players but I was good enough to make the team. It was also fun to compete in the USA cup and get shellacked by some awesome international teams.

However, the curse of doing something at a higher level is that later in life you want to perform that way even when you haven’t put in the training. Your body is not conditioned properly. I never had lots of clever moves but had relied more on my quickness and precision to beat defenders and score goals. When you return to sport after a few years off, your brain reads the play and does the right moves. However, your body messes up the execution and it can be hard to adjust.

In my 30’s I joined some recreational indoor teams where the turf is super unforgiving and I blew out a knee.  I then rehabbed and blew out my other knee a couple of years later while playing too hard at a 10:30pm game tired and a bit out of shape.  I’ve always kind of felt like I should have seen that one coming.  

Never Being Able to Run Again?

When the doctor told me that I would never be able to run on it again, I was shocked.  It felt unfair because the injury seemed so minor when it happened and then turned out to be major.  It was a torn meniscus, full ACL tear, part tear of another ligament, and damage to articulating cartilage.  He delivered the news about never running on it again and then also shared that the ACL repair was optional but if I didn’t do it, the knee would dislocate with cutting movements so I would have to be careful walking and try to build up muscle around it to support that.  Seeing my reaction about his news, the doctor asked me if that was going to be a problem.  I was baffled as to how he couldn’t immediately understand that being athletic was a huge part of my identity.    

The idea of being in my 30s and never running again was insane. Not repairing the ACL was out of the question. In the past few years I had run the Bridger Ridge Run in Montana, a 20 mile overland run across the top of a mountain range. I don’t want to be overly dramatic. I was going to be able to walk again and could certainly get something out of the the knee if being chased by a bear. However, the thought of not being able to run around with my two toddlers or teach them sports as they grew up got me emotional.

I Want a 2nd Opinion

There is a joke about medicine that asks why no one ever gets a 2nd opinion when it is good news. I guess I just had to be sure of my options. I did my research and went to an orthopedics doc that focused quite a bit on knees. He referred me to a 3rd doctor who was pretty active in meniscal transplants and associated research.

Long story short, I got a meniscal transplant and went to rehab 3 days a week for over 6 months. 

It is a strange feeling to have a renewed chance at being active thanks to an unfortunate young donor from Florida who will forever be anonymous to me and my gratitude.  After the road back, I have now been able to run on this knee pretty much without pain for about 4 years.  

However, in the beginning there were no promises of success. At the time, the research reported a huge range of success rates between 12% and 100%*. Preparation of the allograft was suggested as a huge factor. However, the data was not in yet. The point that I am making here is that I was forced to make a difficult and emotional life impacting decision with insufficient information.

Handling Ambiguity, The Lesson of My Surgery

Will my retirement plan and finances actually work?  What if___ happens?  What if I make this change in my life and kick myself later and can’t go back?  When I got this surgery, it was a long and challenging recovery road and it was uncertain.  In the first year, I kept wondering if I pushed my run a little harder would I damage the graft? 

Handling Ambiguity Step #1 Do The Work

If I am looking to make work optional, I can run my budget against other guides and look at scenarios and risk to give myself an accurate view. If I am making a life change, I can look at scenarios and “what ifs” to gauge risk. With my knee, I took ownership of the important issue rather than yielding the decision to someone else. I read the research, got the professional advice, and understood my options.

Handling Ambiguity Step #2 Commit to the Decision

When evaluating a new venture, Richard Branson is well known for at some point just saying “screw it let’s do it!”  This is not hubris but rather it hints at a philosophy for operating under ambiguity.  Doing your homework and analysis is necessary.  However, if that has not killed your idea it can be easy to get caught in analysis paralysis.  If no new information is expected to come in to sway an ambiguous decision then stewing on more analysis can just be emotional indecision.  Even today I have no guarantee that continued activity is not driving me toward a pre-mature knee replacement.  I am re-assured by my doctor’s advice that I can be active on it as long as I don’t experience pain.  However, nothing is ever 100% guaranteed.  His outcomes and success rates are still in process and I am one of them.  I am committing to remaining active as long as possible.  After all, if I avoid action on the knee out of fear, I kind of defeat the purpose of my plan.

Handling Ambiguity Step #3 Rational Optimism. 

Awhile back I wrote a story about the miser and how we all make a choice between rational optimism or fear.  The power of optimism is real.  It can help you perform better which can contribute to getting the outcome you want.  At the same time fear is like accepting pre-emptive pain for something that may never actually happen.  I have found that big scary unknowns tend to become less scary if they come to pass and become known.  At the same time, many don’t come to pass.

This is the story about my knee but it is also a story about life and tough decisions in an environment of ambiguity. These can be financial, they can be decisions around pursuing dreams, they can be putting yourself out there romantically.

Have you had to make a big ambiguous choice in your life?  What other tips would you share.  Join in with a comment below.

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1 comment

Joe September 23, 2019 - 11:02 am

All 3 steps are very important. But I think #2 is what stops most people. When an uncertain situation comes up, it’s way easier to stick with what you know and avoid change. Only a few people can say “screw it, let’s do it.” I think that ability is really rare. You’ll have to execute after that.

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